Muangthong Unitedvs
Nong Bua Pitchaya
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 2 · 9/12/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nong Bua Pitchaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Muangthong United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya
Original prediction
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 41.6% | 34.9% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.7% | 28.4% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 30.7% | 36.7% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Nong Bua Pitchaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20