Muangthong Unitedvs
Chiangmai United
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 2 · 9/19/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Muangthong United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Muangthong United 1-0 Chiangmai United
Original prediction
Muangthong United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 55.8% | 37.5% | -18.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.1% | 27.1% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 4.49 | 20.1% | 35.4% | 15.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Muangthong United
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Muangthong United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20