MTK Budapestvs
Kisvarda FC
COMPLETEDHungary · NB I · 9/5/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MTK Budapest · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
MTK Budapest 1-2 Kisvarda FC
Original prediction
MTK Budapest
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.9% | 50.4% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.5% | 23.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.45 | 26.6% | 25.8% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
MTK Budapest
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
MTK Budapest has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40