MSV Duisburgvs
Würzburger Kickers
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 8/29/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MSV Duisburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
MSV Duisburg 3-0 Würzburger Kickers
Original prediction
MSV Duisburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 62.1% | 47.7% | -14.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.11 | 22.1% | 24.9% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 5.74 | 15.8% | 27.4% | 11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
MSV Duisburg
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
MSV Duisburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20