MSV Duisburgvs
Hoffenheim II
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 10/10/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MSV Duisburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
MSV Duisburg 3-2 Hoffenheim II
Original prediction
MSV Duisburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 53.0% | 45.5% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.2% | 26.8% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 3.81 | 23.7% | 27.7% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
MSV Duisburg
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
MSV Duisburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00