MSV Duisburgvs
Havelse
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 9/15/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MSV Duisburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
MSV Duisburg 2-1 Havelse
Original prediction
MSV Duisburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 72.0% | 65.7% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.22 | 17.3% | 18.6% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 8.39 | 10.7% | 15.7% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
MSV Duisburg
Probability
65.7%
Model confidence
65.7%
MSV Duisburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00