MSV Duisburgvs
FC Viktoria Köln
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 10/18/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MSV Duisburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
MSV Duisburg 1-1 FC Viktoria Köln
Original prediction
MSV Duisburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 43.8% | 51.8% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.2% | 20.0% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.0% | 28.2% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
MSV Duisburg
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
MSV Duisburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40