Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
M'saken · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
M'saken 0-0 CS Chebba
Original prediction
M'saken
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 54.2% | 45.2% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.0% | 29.1% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 5.04 | 17.8% | 25.6% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.21 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
M'saken
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
M'saken has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
M'sakenWLLLD
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CS ChebbaLWWLW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
M'sakenCS Chebba
66.7Attack33.3
66.7Defence33.3
100.0Form0.0
80.3Power23.7
1.57xG0.86