Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mārupe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Mārupe are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Skanste are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Mārupe hold a 5.0-point power-rating edge (49.1 v 44.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.1% in the 1. Liga, while Mārupe holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mārupe
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Mārupe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60