Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mārupe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Mārupe are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Aliance are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 3.80 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and Mārupe hold an 11.6-point power-rating edge (64.7 v 53.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.0% in the Cup, while Mārupe holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 82% BTTS chance and 85% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mārupe
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
7.0%
Mārupe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 19 · GA 12 · avg 3.80/2.40