Mérida ADvs
UD Logroñés
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/27/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UD Logroñés · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mérida AD 3-5 UD Logroñés
Original prediction
UD Logroñés
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 34.4% | 31.4% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.0% | 29.3% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.47 | 36.6% | 39.3% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
UD Logroñés
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
UD Logroñés has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60