Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mirandes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mérida AD 3-4 Mirandes
Original prediction
Mirandes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.06 | 29.6% | 33.1% | 3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.5% | 30.0% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 40.9% | 36.9% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Mirandes
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Mirandes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Mérida ADLWWLL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
MirandesWLLWD
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Mérida ADMirandes
0.0Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
0.0Form50.0
23.7Power50.0
1.06xG1.10