Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mérida AD · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mérida AD 0-0 CD Coria
Original prediction
Mérida AD
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.6% | 56.3% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.8% | 21.1% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 4.21 | 21.5% | 22.6% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Mérida AD
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
56.3%
Mérida AD has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Mérida ADWWWLL
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CD CoriaWLLDD
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Mérida ADCD Coria
66.7Attack50.0
42.9Defence33.3
42.9Form33.3
50.6Power40.6
2.48xG1.40