Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mérida AD · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mérida AD 2-0 Cacereño
Original prediction
Mérida AD
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.4% | 36.9% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.7% | 30.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.24 | 28.0% | 33.1% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Mérida AD
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Mérida AD has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Mérida ADLLLLW
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CacereñoDWLWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Mérida ADCacereño
0.0Attack16.7
66.7Defence83.3
0.0Form33.3
23.7Power48.3
1.00xG1.01