Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mérida AD · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Mérida AD are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Alcorcon are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Alcorcon hold a 3.7-point power-rating edge (60.9 v 64.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.7% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Mérida AD holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mérida AD
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
12.7%
Mérida AD has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20