Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MP · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
MP are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while SalPa are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and MP hold a 5.9-point power-rating edge (45.9 v 39.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.4% in the Ykkösliiga, while MP holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
MP
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
MP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60