Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MP · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
MP are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLD), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while SalPa are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (LDDDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and MP hold a 5.9-point power-rating edge (45.9 v 39.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.4% in the Ykkösliiga, while MP holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
MP
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
MP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 6 · avg 0.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60