Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PK-35 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: MP 0-1 PK-35, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
MP 0-3 PK-35
Original prediction
PK-35
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.54 | 25.6% | 15.9% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.8% | 23.0% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 1.90 | 47.6% | 61.1% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.5 pts
Projected Score
MP 0–1 PK-35
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
PK-35
Probability
61.1%
Model confidence
61.1%
PK-35 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MPLLLWD
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PK-35WDWLD
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MPPK-35
36.7Attack56.7
50.0Defence76.7
35.0Form68.3
43.3Power67.2
0.60xG1.68