Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MP · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
MP are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while KPV-j are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and MP hold a 35.2-point power-rating edge (55.8 v 20.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 81.2% in the Ykkönen, while MP holds the strongest overall chance at 81% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
MP
Probability
81.2%
Model confidence
81.2%
MP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60