Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MP · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
MP are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while KäPa are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and MP hold a 7.4-point power-rating edge (45.9 v 38.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.6% in the Ykkösliiga, while MP holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
MP
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
MP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60