Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MP · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: MP 1-0 JäPS, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
MP 1-2 JäPS
Original prediction
MP
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 13:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 47.0% | 48.1% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.8% | 27.3% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 27.3% | 24.6% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.2 pts
Projected Score
MP 1–0 JäPS
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
MP
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
MP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MPDDWDW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 0/5
JäPSLLWLW
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
MPJäPS
35.9Attack29.5
53.8Defence48.7
38.5Form44.9
45.2Power43.2
1.19xG0.75