Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
MP are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while JäPS are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 45.9 against 46.8. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.3% in the Ykkösliiga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 27% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 7 · GA 16 · avg 1.40/3.20