Mozambiquevs
Sudan
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mozambique · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mozambique 4-1 Sudan
Original prediction
Mozambique
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 47.7% | 37.5% | -10.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.90 | 31.4% | 29.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 4.36 | 20.9% | 32.6% | 11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Mozambique
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Mozambique has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.20/0.60