Mozambiquevs
Senegal
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/25/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Senegal · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mozambique 1-1 Senegal
Original prediction
Senegal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.28 | 9.8% | 17.9% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.70 | 19.4% | 23.5% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 1.29 | 70.8% | 58.6% | -12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Senegal
Probability
58.6%
Model confidence
58.6%
Senegal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80