Moyola Parkvs
Newington Youth
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 10/16/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newington Youth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moyola Park 2-3 Newington Youth
Original prediction
Newington Youth
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.48 | 26.0% | 24.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.7% | 23.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.80 | 50.2% | 51.8% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Newington Youth
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
Newington Youth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 9 · GA 15 · avg 1.80/3.00