Moyola Parkvs
Glenavon FC
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 10/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Glenavon FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moyola Park 0-3 Glenavon FC
Original prediction
Glenavon FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.94 | 18.4% | 19.4% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.21 | 21.6% | 21.2% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.51 | 60.0% | 59.3% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Glenavon FC
Probability
59.3%
Model confidence
59.3%
Glenavon FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20