Moyola Parkvs
Armagh City
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moyola Park · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moyola Park 1-0 Armagh City
Original prediction
Moyola Park
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 57.0% | 40.4% | -16.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 22.7% | 25.9% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 4.46 | 20.3% | 33.8% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Moyola Park
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Moyola Park has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60