Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Motril · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Motril 2-4 Málaga II
Original prediction
Motril
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.9% | 44.1% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.4% | 26.8% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.37 | 26.8% | 29.0% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Motril
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Motril has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MotrilWDWWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Málaga IIDLWWD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MotrilMálaga II
100.0Attack50.0
33.3Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
80.3Power50.0
2.17xG1.46