Motor Lublinvs
Legia Warszawa
COMPLETEDPoland · Cup · 9/1/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Legia Warszawa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Motor Lublin 3-0 Legia Warszawa
Original prediction
Legia Warszawa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.28 | 21.1% | 32.6% | 11.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.5% | 26.6% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 54.4% | 40.8% | -13.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Legia Warszawa
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Legia Warszawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80