Motor Lublinvs
Legia Warszawa
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 9/5/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Legia Warszawa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Motor Lublin 2-3 Legia Warszawa
Original prediction
Legia Warszawa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.54 | 26.3% | 26.9% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 26.2% | 26.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.96 | 47.5% | 47.0% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Legia Warszawa
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Legia Warszawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20