Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iguatu · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Moto Club are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Iguatu are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Iguatu hold a 27.6-point power-rating edge (37.9 v 65.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.9% in the Serie D, while Iguatu holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 31% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Iguatu
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
58.9%
Iguatu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60