Motherwellvs
Celtic
COMPLETEDScotland · Premiership · 10/11/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celtic · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Motherwell 0-2 Celtic
Original prediction
Celtic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.74 | 19.8% | 22.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 21.2% | 24.6% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 1.59 | 59.0% | 53.3% | -5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Celtic
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Celtic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MotherwellLLLWD
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
CelticLLLWW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MotherwellCeltic
42.9Attack66.7
47.6Defence81.0
38.1Form85.7
43.9Power78.2
0.83xG1.89