Motherwellvs
Aberdeen
COMPLETEDScotland · Premiership · 9/15/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Motherwell · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Motherwell 0-4 Aberdeen
Original prediction
Motherwell
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 50.2% | 52.6% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.7% | 25.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.88 | 24.1% | 21.9% | -2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Motherwell
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
Motherwell has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00