Motalavs
Stenungsund
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Norra Götaland · 9/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stenungsund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Motala 2-2 Stenungsund
Original prediction
Stenungsund
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 39.5% | 34.9% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.6% | 23.9% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 35.0% | 41.2% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.53 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Stenungsund
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Stenungsund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80