Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Motala · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Motala 1-3 Lidköping
Original prediction
Motala
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.2% | 48.5% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.9% | 25.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.64 | 24.9% | 26.5% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Motala
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Motala has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MotalaLWLDD
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LidköpingWLWWW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MotalaLidköping
48.6Attack40.3
47.2Defence41.7
36.1Form37.5
44.6Power42.0
1.85xG1.17