Mostavs
Birzebbuga
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mosta · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mosta 2-2 Birzebbuga
Original prediction
Mosta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 31.6% | 55.8% | 24.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.2% | 22.5% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 41.2% | 21.7% | -19.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.34 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
24.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.3–011%
Predicted outcome
Mosta
Probability
55.8%
Model confidence
55.8%
Mosta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MostaLDWWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BirzebbugaLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 11 · avg 0.20/2.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
MostaBirzebbuga
46.7Attack5.6
66.7Defence22.2
66.7Form0.0
62.3Power15.1
2.19xG0.64