Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
28%
HighconfidenceMosta are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Balzan FC are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and balzan FC hold a 4.8-point power-rating edge (43.3 v 48.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely result in the Premier League, favouring a draw with 27.6% confidence, a 24% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
27.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MostaWDLDW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Balzan FCDDDWD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
MostaBalzan FC
24.4Attack33.3
59.0Defence64.1
39.7Form43.6
43.3Power48.0
0.57xG0.76