Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moss · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moss 1-2 Strommen
Original prediction
Moss
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 45.0% | 52.6% | 7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.4% | 18.7% | -5.7 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.6% | 28.7% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.3–27%
Predicted outcome
Moss
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
Moss has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MossDLDLL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
StrommenWLLWD
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MossStrommen
54.4Attack49.1
24.6Defence19.3
33.3Form31.6
40.0Power35.6
2.90xG2.04