Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moss · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 3-2 (6%), 2-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moss 2-2 Sogndal
Original prediction
Moss
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 42.9% | 44.7% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.9% | 18.9% | -5.0 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 33.2% | 36.5% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.86 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.3–26%
- 3.2–36%
Predicted outcome
Moss
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Moss has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MossLDLLL
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
SogndalWLLWL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MossSogndal
53.7Attack59.3
24.1Defence20.4
33.3Form38.9
39.7Power41.0
2.78xG2.52