Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haugesund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (7%), 1-4 (7%), 2-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moss 1-4 Haugesund
Original prediction
Haugesund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.53 | 20.3% | 22.8% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.61 | 20.0% | 21.1% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 59.7% | 56.1% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–37%
- 2.1–47%
- 3.2–37%
Predicted outcome
Haugesund
Probability
56.1%
Model confidence
56.1%
Haugesund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MossWLDLD
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
HaugesundWWWWL
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
MossHaugesund
55.6Attack100.0
25.4Defence42.9
34.9Form73.0
41.2Power70.1
1.90xG3.88