Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moss · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moss 0-0 Egersund
Original prediction
Moss
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.7% | 41.3% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.4% | 23.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.89 | 31.9% | 35.3% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–28%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Moss
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Moss has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MossWLDWL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
EgersundWLLWD
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MossEgersund
53.3Attack52.0
26.7Defence33.3
37.3Form42.7
41.8Power43.4
2.31xG2.14