Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moss · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moss 1-3 Asane
Original prediction
Moss
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 60.5% | 52.8% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.47 | 20.6% | 20.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 4.85 | 19.0% | 26.3% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–17%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Moss
Probability
52.8%
Model confidence
52.8%
Moss has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MossLDWLD
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
AsaneLLWLL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MossAsane
49.4Attack45.7
30.9Defence24.7
35.8Form28.4
41.4Power34.9
2.48xG1.73