Mortonvs
Dunfermline
COMPLETEDScotland · Championship · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dunfermline · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Morton 0-1 Dunfermline, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Morton 0-1 Dunfermline
Original prediction
Dunfermline
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.34 | 21.0% | 22.1% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.5% | 27.8% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 1.67 | 54.5% | 50.1% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Projected Score
Morton 0–1 Dunfermline
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Dunfermline
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Dunfermline has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MortonLLDLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
DunfermlineWDWLL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MortonDunfermline
22.2Attack27.8
33.3Defence77.8
5.6Form50.0
24.2Power54.0
0.64xG1.21