Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ayr Utd · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Morton 0-0 Ayr Utd, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 06:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.10 | 29.4% | 27.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.0% | 31.9% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 42.7% | 40.4% | -2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Projected Score
Morton 0–0 Ayr Utd
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Ayr Utd
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Ayr Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MortonWWLLL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Ayr UtdLDWLW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MortonAyr Utd
24.2Attack30.3
48.5Defence63.6
21.2Form36.4
34.0Power45.4
0.56xG0.88