Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ayr Utd · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Morton are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Ayr Utd are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Ayr Utd hold a 46.5-point power-rating edge (21.5 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.4% in the Championship, while Ayr Utd holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ayr Utd
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Ayr Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40