Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Morton are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Arbroath are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Arbroath hold a 9.8-point power-rating edge (21.5 v 31.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.5% in the Championship, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00