Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leça · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mortágua 0-2 Leça
Original prediction
Leça
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.74 | 19.0% | 33.1% | 14.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.0% | 26.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 54.1% | 40.4% | -13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Leça
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Leça has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MortáguaDWDWW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
LeçaWLWLD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MortáguaLeça
50.0Attack66.7
16.7Defence33.3
50.0Form33.3
42.7Power45.3
1.81xG1.72