Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morrinhos · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Morrinhos 2-1 Trindade
Original prediction
Morrinhos
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.3% | 66.3% | 13.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.2% | 21.0% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 4.63 | 19.5% | 12.7% | -6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.1–015%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Morrinhos
Probability
66.3%
Model confidence
66.3%
Morrinhos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MorrinhosLDLDW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
TrindadeLDLDL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MorrinhosTrindade
51.5Attack24.2
51.5Defence45.5
45.5Form15.2
51.5Power31.5
1.93xG0.60