Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morrinhos · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Morrinhos 1-1 Goianésia
Original prediction
Morrinhos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.80 | 32.2% | 36.8% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.2% | 27.9% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 37.7% | 35.3% | -2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.99 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Morrinhos
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Morrinhos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MorrinhosLDWWL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
GoianésiaDWWLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MorrinhosGoianésia
55.6Attack40.7
51.9Defence66.7
51.9Form66.7
55.0Power61.1
1.17xG1.09