Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morocco · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Morocco 1-0 Gabon, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Morocco 2-0 Gabon
Original prediction
Morocco
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 80.6% | 52.9% | -27.7 pts |
| Draw | 6.77 | 13.6% | 25.6% | 12.0 pts |
| Away | 15.75 | 5.8% | 21.5% | 15.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.7 pts
Projected Score
Morocco 1–0 Gabon
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Morocco
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Morocco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MoroccoDWWWD
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GabonWLDLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MoroccoGabon
66.7Attack16.7
83.3Defence91.7
100.0Form58.3
86.5Power58.8
1.27xG0.75